Week 3: Top 25 -- TFG

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	0.974	0.670	14	29.0	3	7.4	1	151.6	121
2	+2	Oregon	0.935	0.585	35	32.3	1	11.8	13	177.5	17
3	+3	Wisconsin	0.923	0.363	102	23.1	15	9.1	5	153.7	120
4	+1	Florida St.	0.913	0.587	34	25.9	8	10.7	9	156.8	115
5	+3	Stanford	0.909	0.650	18	23.4	14	9.8	6	159.1	102
6	-3	Oklahoma	0.895	0.574	40	19.2	40	8.6	3	171.5	40
7	+2	Texas A&M	0.892	0.640	21	29.4	2	13.3	22	183.6	8
8	+6	Michigan	0.882	0.558	46	27.8	5	13.0	21	156.5	117
9	-7	Notre Dame	0.881	0.683	12	21.9	25	10.3	8	164.9	66
10	-3	Florida	0.875	0.671	13	17.7	52	8.5	2	160.9	95
11	+1	LSU	0.864	0.591	32	24.0	13	12.0	14	161.4	93
12	+4	Georgia	0.846	0.735	5	27.0	7	14.2	31	163.9	74
13	-3	South Carolina	0.841	0.735	4	21.8	26	11.6	12	158.4	109
14	+9	Ohio St.	0.838	0.430	87	24.6	10	13.3	24	163.2	78
15	--	Miami-FL	0.835	0.434	82	22.2	24	12.1	15	155.9	118
16	NA	UCF	0.826	0.204	122	20.2	34	11.3	10	153.9	119
17	-4	Kansas St.	0.822	0.604	30	27.3	6	15.3	42	157.9	110
18	-7	Oklahoma St.	0.817	0.553	48	24.5	11	14.0	28	184.4	5
19	-1	Clemson	0.816	0.710	9	24.9	9	14.2	30	178.9	13
20	+5	Baylor	0.802	0.488	68	29.0	4	17.1	66	186.2	3
21	+3	Penn State	0.793	0.404	91	16.9	61	10.2	7	169.4	47
22	NA	Michigan St.	0.783	0.480	69	14.5	89	9.0	4	162.5	88
23	NA	Nebraska	0.777	0.508	57	24.4	12	15.2	40	170.0	46
24	-2	Washington	0.762	0.632	23	19.5	36	12.6	18	168.8	49
25	-6	Oregon St.	0.755	0.567	43	20.6	32	13.5	25	162.0	90

Rankings through games of 2013-09-08

New entries: UCF, Michigan St., Nebraska.



Dropped out: Cincinnati, Texas, USC.



The hunt is on.



At the end of last year Alabama was the only team above 0.900 in expected winning percentage, but two weeks into this season we see four other teams creeping above that bar. Oregon took the largest leap thanks to their 59-10 drubbing of a hapless UVa squad. The main beneficiary of the game wasn't the 59 points Oregon hung on the Hoos in 186 plays (31.7 PPH), but the stingy 5.4 PPH their defense allowed. If the Ducks want to pull even with Alabama in EWP but only focusing on one side of the ball, they have two routes:

1. An unchanged 32.3 PPH on offense and 8.4 PPH on defense (a -3.4 PPH adjustment); or


2. A 45.3 PPH rating on offense (+12.0 PPH) and an unchanged defense.

I'll be the first to admit that TFG doesn't handle garbage time points very well, and scrubbing those out could help Oregon since they tend to give up points once the game is decided. The bottom line, though, is that scoring gobs of points won't help if you also let your opponent score gobs of points (see: USC) or you struggle on offense when you encounter a real defense (see: Stanford).



Wisconsin is a bit of an anomaly now, since TFG only has one game's worth of data to go on: their 45-0 victory over 124th-ranked UMass. Their 48-0 win over Tennessee Tech doesn't count since these rankings only include all-FBS games. We'll have a better sense of UW after their game against ASU this weekend. Florida State also has only one game under their belt (against #56 Pittsburgh), much like Stanford and their whipping boy, #60 San Jose State.



At this point it's still too early to get a good statistical read on the teams. That should start clearing up soon, though, with several big games coming up this weekend, including the one everyone will be watching: #1 Alabama at #7 Texas A&M. Home field advantage still matters a lot this early in the year, so look for the Aggies to get a boost from that. Short of another SEC and/or BCS Champsionship game, this should be the biggest challenge for the Crimson Tide this year.







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