Week 10: Thursday Predictions

27 Houston 36  99 South Florida 21

49 Houston 35  99 South Florida 17

55 North Texas 27  60 Rice 24

79 North Texas 31  76 Rice 24

107 Troy 31 102 LA-Monroe 29

111 Troy 28 114 LA-Monroe 24

63 Washington St. 30  14 Arizona St. 38

66 Washington St. 24  16 Arizona St. 42

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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Week 10 TFG Projections: ACC,American Athletic,Conference-USA

Projected conference champions

• ACC: Florida St.


• American Athletic: Louisville


• Conference-USA: East Carolina

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

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Week 10 RBA Projections: ACC,American Athletic,Conference-USA

Projected conference champions

• ACC: Florida St.


• American Athletic: UCF


• Conference-USA: East Carolina

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

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Week 10: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG

Odds as of games through 2013-10-27

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Week 10: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Fri Nov 1 02:34:04 2013

South Florida	23	Houston	35	Final
Rice	16	North Texas	28	Final
LA-Monroe	49	Troy	37	Final
Arizona St.	55	Washington St.	21	Final

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Week 10: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- RBA

Odds as of games through 2013-10-27

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Week 10: Wednesday Predictions

76 Memphis 23  52 Cincinnati 24

87 Memphis 21  24 Cincinnati 27

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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Week 10: Top 25 -- TFG

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama  ( 8 - 0 )	0.983	0.499	59	28.9	6	6.3	1	146.1	125
2	--	Florida St.  ( 6 - 0 )	0.944	0.516	56	30.6	3	10.6	6	160.2	97
3	+1	Oregon  ( 7 - 0 )	0.911	0.496	60	29.6	5	12.3	14	177.5	20
4	-1	Baylor  ( 6 - 0 )	0.906	0.507	57	33.5	1	14.3	33	187.8	4
5	+1	Louisville  ( 6 - 1 )	0.899	0.375	99	24.0	12	10.6	5	149.8	124
6	-1	Wisconsin  ( 4 - 2 )	0.881	0.533	51	23.5	15	11.1	8	158.1	110
7	+3	Ohio St.  ( 7 - 0 )	0.875	0.590	39	28.9	7	13.9	28	164.1	79
8	+8	Michigan St.  ( 6 - 1 )	0.872	0.457	75	16.1	63	7.8	2	162.0	87
9	-2	LSU  ( 6 - 2 )	0.848	0.598	33	24.5	11	12.9	19	162.5	84
10	-2	Stanford  ( 7 - 1 )	0.846	0.603	31	21.3	23	11.3	9	156.7	114
11	+2	Texas A&M  ( 5 - 2 )	0.845	0.662	15	31.1	2	16.4	56	181.7	14
12	-1	UCF  ( 6 - 1 )	0.824	0.415	87	25.0	10	14.0	29	157.9	111
13	+5	BYU  ( 6 - 2 )	0.823	0.590	36	19.1	36	10.7	7	184.8	8
14	--	Arizona St.  ( 4 - 2 )	0.821	0.675	13	29.7	4	16.8	60	177.5	21
15	-6	Clemson  ( 6 - 1 )	0.815	0.611	30	21.3	24	12.2	13	180.9	15
16	-4	Missouri  ( 6 - 1 )	0.804	0.655	16	22.0	20	13.0	20	175.6	28
17	+7	Kansas St.  ( 3 - 3 )	0.801	0.641	21	23.6	14	14.0	30	156.1	116
18	-3	Florida  ( 4 - 3 )	0.798	0.642	20	15.9	68	9.5	3	152.2	122
19	-2	Georgia  ( 4 - 3 )	0.794	0.711	7	25.7	8	15.5	43	166.5	66
20	-1	Oklahoma  ( 7 - 1 )	0.784	0.566	46	22.6	17	13.9	27	162.0	86
21	-1	South Carolina  ( 6 - 2 )	0.784	0.624	25	20.8	26	12.8	17	160.6	92
22	NA	Notre Dame  ( 6 - 2 )	0.784	0.621	28	19.5	33	12.0	12	163.3	81
23	--	Oklahoma St.  ( 5 - 1 )	0.778	0.571	45	22.6	18	14.1	32	188.3	2
24	NA	USC  ( 5 - 3 )	0.770	0.631	24	18.1	46	11.5	10	154.4	119
25	-3	Michigan  ( 6 - 1 )	0.761	0.467	71	25.2	9	16.3	55	162.2	85

Rankings through games of 2013-10-27

Data from CFBStats

New entries: Notre Dame, USC.



Dropped out: Boise St., Miami-FL.



Alabama and Florida State continue to cruise. Oregon let UCLA hang around for a half, and then put them away. Baylor's offense continues to be utterly dominant, but their lackluster defense is probably going to catch up to them at some point (see: last year's WVU squad).



Ohio State continues to make inroads and is a much better team than last year. I'm not sure what their ceiling is yet, but they continue to let other teams score too many points, even if they do win in the end. The good news for Buckeye fans is that their two most difficult games -- Wisconsin and Northwestern -- are behind them, and only Michigan has a real shot at defeating them (although Indiana could make it interesting). The likely title matchup between Michigan State and Ohio State would be an unstoppable-force-immovable-object scenario, though, as the Spartans' defense is second to only Alabama's.



Speaking of the Spartans, Michigan State is finally starting to find that offense they needed. If that's the case, it's becoming more and more likely that they'll represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl.



I want to take a second to focus on two teams that are notable for their relationship to my top 25: Miami-FL and Kansas State. The Hurricanes probably have the largest gap between human perception (undefeated and currently ranked #7 in the BCS, but not even in the top 25 here). They've eeked out close wins against UNC and Wake Forest the last two weeks, but don't expect Florida State to go easy on them. The FSU offense is #3 in the nation, and the Miami defense just isn't equipped to handle that. Miami is basically Clemson, but with a slightly worse defense.



Kansas State, on the other hand, is in the top 25. Why is that? The short answer is that they've done very well against an extremely difficult schedule so far. They're the only team to hold the Bears to fewer than 8 touchdowns (yes, eight) and have lost to (1) the Bears, (2) a resurgent Texas team, (3) Oklahoma State at OSU, and (4) the #1 team in FCS, which can legitimately be ranked ahead of Virginia Tech, Michigan, and Notre Dame. TFG rankings don't look to reward a team for their performance, but to predict how they'll do in the future. Based on that metric, the Wildcats rate somewhere between Missouri and Florida in terms of "would-we-want-to-play-them".



Tomorrow we'll take a look at the undefeated picture.







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Week 10: Top 25 -- RBA

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama  ( 8 - 0 )	0.953	0.548	19	27.4	4	6.0	1	155.9	125
2	--	Florida St.  ( 6 - 0 )	0.889	0.547	22	28.5	2	9.5	4	165.6	82
3	--	Oregon  ( 7 - 0 )	0.860	0.530	53	28.2	3	10.3	9	177.5	3
4	+2	LSU  ( 6 - 2 )	0.833	0.551	14	26.5	5	11.6	15	160.5	118
5	--	Wisconsin  ( 4 - 2 )	0.832	0.534	48	24.0	9	10.9	11	161.5	114
6	+4	Baylor  ( 6 - 0 )	0.827	0.559	5	29.3	1	13.2	31	175.1	6
7	--	Florida  ( 4 - 3 )	0.797	0.562	3	17.4	48	8.7	3	160.8	116
8	-4	Oklahoma  ( 7 - 1 )	0.768	0.552	12	20.9	21	11.2	12	171.6	19
9	--	Clemson  ( 6 - 1 )	0.765	0.530	52	21.1	20	11.8	17	168.8	36
10	+4	Stanford  ( 7 - 1 )	0.763	0.542	30	21.1	19	11.3	13	166.9	66
11	+1	Louisville  ( 6 - 1 )	0.761	0.483	77	22.7	11	11.5	14	164.7	97
12	+4	Notre Dame  ( 6 - 2 )	0.759	0.568	2	18.6	39	9.6	5	164.3	100
13	-2	South Carolina  ( 6 - 2 )	0.757	0.542	29	22.1	16	12.4	22	158.2	124
14	+3	Missouri  ( 6 - 1 )	0.753	0.527	56	22.0	17	12.7	26	174.4	9
15	--	Ohio St.  ( 7 - 0 )	0.753	0.528	55	24.2	8	12.7	28	160.2	119
16	+4	Arizona St.  ( 4 - 2 )	0.750	0.537	38	25.8	7	13.8	40	174.8	8
17	+1	Michigan  ( 6 - 1 )	0.748	0.542	32	23.9	10	14.3	46	166.5	73
18	-10	Texas A&M  ( 5 - 2 )	0.747	0.556	7	25.9	6	13.8	39	174.1	10
19	-6	BYU  ( 6 - 2 )	0.746	0.484	76	17.1	53	9.8	7	170.5	26
20	+1	Michigan St.  ( 6 - 1 )	0.744	0.542	31	16.0	67	7.6	2	166.8	68
21	-2	UCLA  ( 5 - 2 )	0.735	0.549	18	20.5	24	12.3	21	169.1	34
22	--	Iowa  ( 4 - 3 )	0.719	0.526	58	18.3	40	10.3	8	163.9	103
23	+2	Oklahoma St.  ( 5 - 1 )	0.719	0.555	8	22.3	15	13.5	36	174.9	7
24	--	Cincinnati  ( 4 - 2 )	0.713	0.500	66	19.2	32	11.9	18	168.6	45
25	NA	Georgia Tech  ( 4 - 3 )	0.712	0.536	43	20.6	23	14.2	44	163.2	108

Rankings through games of 2013-10-27

Data from CFBStats

New entries: Georgia Tech.



Dropped out: Georgia.





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Week 10: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Houston (0.107); Minnesota (0.075); Rice (0.074); Michigan St. (0.071); Auburn (0.071)



Biggest drops: Illinois (-0.140); Nebraska (-0.098); Penn State (-0.094); Boston College (-0.092); TCU (-0.071)



Full rankings after the jump.

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Week 10: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Georgia Tech (0.105); Wake Forest (0.079); Tulane (0.076); Georgia State (0.067); Colorado St. (0.066)



Biggest drops: Maryland (-0.111); Oklahoma (-0.084); Wyoming (-0.051); Texas A&M (-0.043); California (-0.039)



Full rankings after the jump.

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Week 10: Wednesday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Wed Oct 30 23:54:06 2013

Cincinnati

34

Memphis

21

Final

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Week 9: Saturday Predictions

102 Air Force 23  28 Notre Dame 32

106 Air Force 17  16 Notre Dame 38

116 Akron 26  69 Ball St. 32

116 Akron 21  63 Ball St. 34

1 Alabama 37  51 Tennessee 18

1 Alabama 42  57 Tennessee 14

40 Auburn 31  97 FL-Atlantic 20

45 Auburn 38 109 FL-Atlantic 10

58 Bowling Green 30  73 Toledo 25

51 Bowling Green 31  68 Toledo 21

106 Colorado 25  42 Arizona 34

103 Colorado 20  44 Arizona 45

122 FIU 25 100 LA Tech 30

123 FIU 24  80 LA Tech 31

2 Florida St. 39  65 North Carolina St. 19

2 Florida St. 38  54 North Carolina St. 14

105 Hawaii 28  86 Colorado St. 30

105 Hawaii 32  92 Colorado St. 31

62 Illinois 24  16 Michigan St. 26

64 Illinois 21  21 Michigan St. 31

39 Iowa 29  59 Northwestern 23

22 Iowa 28  40 Northwestern 24

66 Iowa St. 28  23 Oklahoma St. 33

55 Iowa St. 24  25 Oklahoma St. 35

99 Kansas 24   3 Baylor 44

107 Kansas 17  10 Baylor 52

24 Kansas St. 35  53 West Virginia 26

27 Kansas St. 38  60 West Virginia 21

98 Kent St. 23  55 Buffalo 27

84 Kent St. 28  88 Buffalo 27

112 LA-Monroe 30 NA Georgia State 20

115 LA-Monroe 31 125 Georgia State 17

87 Maryland 22   9 Clemson 33

56 Maryland 21   9 Clemson 38

124 Massachusetts 24 118 Western Michigan 25

124 Massachusetts 27 118 Western Michigan 21

25 Miami-FL 34  81 Wake Forest 21

32 Miami-FL 38  94 Wake Forest 17

76 Minnesota 24  26 Nebraska 30

69 Minnesota 24  42 Nebraska 34

41 Mississippi 39 120 Idaho 19

30 Mississippi 49 120 Idaho 10

12 Missouri 31  20 South Carolina 26

17 Missouri 31  11 South Carolina 27

77 Navy 24  50 Pittsburgh 26

102 Navy 27  59 Pittsburgh 38

78 Nevada 38 110 UNLV 28

82 Nevada 42 110 UNLV 21

60 North Carolina 30  57 Boston College 27

61 North Carolina 31  76 Boston College 24

52 Northern Ill. 43 117 Eastern Michigan 24

46 Northern Ill. 42 119 Eastern Michigan 14

68 Ohio 36 123 Miami-OH 20

100 Ohio 38 121 Miami-OH 17

10 Ohio St. 34  29 Penn State 25

15 Ohio St. 35  31 Penn State 24

19 Oklahoma 33  36 Texas Tech 28

4 Oklahoma 38  38 Texas Tech 21

4 Oregon 38  27 UCLA 27

3 Oregon 38  19 UCLA 21

34 Oregon St. 28   8 Stanford 29

34 Oregon St. 28  14 Stanford 31

71 Rice 36 113 UTEP 25

77 Rice 35  99 UTEP 24

56 Rutgers 32  44 Houston 30

49 Rutgers 31  58 Houston 24

70 SDSU 30  48 Fresno St. 31

67 SDSU 28  52 Fresno St. 31

82 SJSU 33  85 Wyoming 30

78 SJSU 34  75 Wyoming 27

75 SMU 31  96 Temple 26

73 SMU 34  97 Temple 20

92 South Florida 19   6 Louisville 30

108 South Florida 17  12 Louisville 41

30 USC 28  37 Utah 25

39 USC 31  53 Utah 24

119 Southern Miss. 21  63 North Texas 31

117 Southern Miss. 20  81 North Texas 31

43 TCU 28  38 Texas 27

36 TCU 28  33 Texas 24

13 Texas A&M 42  45 Vanderbilt 30

8 Texas A&M 41  48 Vanderbilt 24

89 Tulane 31  79 Tulsa 29

113 Tulane 24  79 Tulsa 31

11 UCF 35 103 Connecticut 18

26 UCF 38  96 Connecticut 14

94 UTSA 35 114 UAB 26

98 UTSA 35 111 UAB 24

90 Virginia 23  31 Georgia Tech 30

90 Virginia 20  47 Georgia Tech 35

32 Virginia Tech 29  61 Duke 23

43 Virginia Tech 34  70 Duke 20

33 Washington 35  93 California 22

35 Washington 38  85 California 17

84 Western Kentucky 35 109 Troy 27

89 Western Kentucky 34 112 Troy 24

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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Week 9: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Oct 27 03:59:05 2013

Ball St.	42	Akron	24	Final
Tennessee	10	Alabama	45	Final
FL-Atlantic	10	Auburn	45	Final
Toledo	28	Bowling Green	25	Final
Connecticut	17	UCF	62	Final
Arizona	44	Colorado	20	Final
LA Tech	23	FIU	7	Final
North Carolina St.	17	Florida St.	49	Final
Colorado St.	35	Hawaii	28	Final
Michigan St.	42	Illinois	3	Final
Oklahoma St.	58	Iowa St.	27	Final
Northwestern	10	Iowa	17	Final
West Virginia	12	Kansas St.	35	Final
Baylor	59	Kansas	14	Final
Buffalo	41	Kent St.	21	Final
Clemson	40	Maryland	27	Final
Western Michigan	31	Massachusetts	30	Final
Wake Forest	21	Miami-FL	24	Final
Nebraska	23	Minnesota	34	Final
Idaho	14	Mississippi	59	Final
South Carolina	27	Missouri	24	Final
Boston College	10	North Carolina	34	Final
UNLV	27	Nevada	22	Final
Georgia State	10	LA-Monroe	38	Final
Eastern Michigan	20	Northern Ill.	59	Final
Penn State	14	Ohio St.	63	Final
Miami-OH	16	Ohio	41	Final
Texas Tech	30	Oklahoma	38	Final
Stanford	20	Oregon St.	12	Final
UCLA	14	Oregon	42	Final
UTEP	7	Rice	45	Final
Houston	49	Rutgers	14	Final
Fresno St.	35	SDSU	28	Final
Wyoming	44	SJSU	51	Final
Louisville	34	South Florida	3	Final
Utah	3	USC	19	Final
Temple	49	SMU	59	Final
North Texas	55	Southern Miss.	14	Final
Vanderbilt	24	Texas A&M	56	Final
Texas	30	TCU	7	Final
UAB	31	UTSA	52	Final
Tulsa	7	Tulane	14	Final
Notre Dame	45	Air Force	10	Final
Pittsburgh	21	Navy	24	Final
Duke	13	Virginia Tech	10	Final
Georgia Tech	35	Virginia	25	Final
California	17	Washington	41	Final
Troy	32	Western Kentucky	26	Final

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