Week 14: Top 25 -- TFG

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama  ( 10 - 0 )	0.979	0.556	49	27.5	5	6.5	1	146.8	125
2	--	Florida St.  ( 10 - 0 )	0.965	0.433	76	31.4	1	9.0	3	160.5	98
3	--	Wisconsin  ( 8 - 2 )	0.918	0.553	50	23.3	14	9.4	4	157.4	108
4	+3	Michigan St.  ( 9 - 1 )	0.894	0.483	70	18.1	51	8.1	2	160.2	99
5	--	Ohio St.  ( 10 - 0 )	0.892	0.490	67	28.1	4	12.7	17	166.1	71
6	-2	Baylor  ( 8 - 1 )	0.888	0.587	39	30.8	2	14.2	30	186.7	2
7	+6	Oklahoma St.  ( 9 - 1 )	0.872	0.595	34	24.8	11	12.1	13	184.2	5
8	+3	LSU  ( 7 - 3 )	0.871	0.709	2	25.4	8	12.4	15	160.1	100
9	-1	Louisville  ( 9 - 1 )	0.853	0.364	95	21.0	24	10.8	5	152.7	123
10	--	Clemson  ( 8 - 1 )	0.847	0.590	37	23.3	13	12.3	14	182.2	11
11	+3	Missouri  ( 9 - 1 )	0.843	0.603	33	21.5	18	11.4	10	174.1	32
12	-6	Oregon  ( 8 - 2 )	0.840	0.538	60	25.0	10	13.4	20	176.0	24
13	-1	Stanford  ( 9 - 2 )	0.837	0.582	41	20.9	26	11.3	9	156.1	115
14	-5	Texas A&M  ( 7 - 3 )	0.830	0.636	16	28.7	3	15.8	51	180.6	14
15	--	Arizona St.  ( 8 - 2 )	0.820	0.629	19	26.2	7	14.8	43	173.9	34
16	+5	Georgia  ( 6 - 4 )	0.794	0.687	8	26.7	6	16.1	53	168.5	58
17	-1	BYU  ( 6 - 4 )	0.788	0.632	18	18.3	48	11.1	7	186.6	3
18	--	South Carolina  ( 8 - 2 )	0.786	0.618	23	21.4	20	13.1	18	160.8	95
19	--	UCF  ( 9 - 1 )	0.785	0.422	81	23.7	12	14.6	38	158.6	106
20	-3	Kansas St.  ( 6 - 4 )	0.784	0.609	26	25.1	9	15.4	45	156.9	111
21	-1	Auburn  ( 9 - 1 )	0.784	0.626	21	21.9	17	13.5	22	167.6	63
22	--	Oklahoma  ( 9 - 2 )	0.783	0.589	38	22.6	15	14.0	26	162.0	91
23	NA	Washington  ( 6 - 4 )	0.756	0.591	36	21.5	19	14.1	28	173.8	35
24	NA	Bowling Green  ( 7 - 3 )	0.746	0.234	124	18.0	53	12.0	12	154.8	117
25	NA	Notre Dame  ( 8 - 3 )	0.730	0.604	32	19.3	38	13.3	19	163.5	83

Rankings through games of 2013-11-24

Data from CFBStats

New entries: Washington, Bowling Green, Notre Dame.



Dropped out: USC, Boise St., Houston.



We're coming down the home stretch and Alabama and Florida State seem to be a sea of tranquility surrounded by chaos. Baylor loss? Check. SEC East madness? Check. Boise losing a close game because of kicking issues? Check. The rare Oregon-loss-Stanford-loss-Oregon-loss triple lutz? Check. Year-in and year-out the Pac-12 -- Oregon and Stanford in particular -- seems destined to play out the worst-case scenario of a Mexican standoff. Ohio State is waiting in the wings hoping that eventually the chaos will overtake either the Crimson Tide or the Seminoles, ignoring the fact that they've got a large, green speedbump in front of them.



However even the sea of tranquility doesn't look that calm for the top two. TFG has the Crimson Tide as 93% likely to beat Auburn, but Vegas pins the odds a bit closer to 77%. A quick back-of-the-envelope has the Crimson Tide as about 90% favorites over the eventual SEC East winner, meaning Alabama is somewhere between 69% and 84% likely to win out. FSU are heavy favorites against the Gators, and are waiting for whichever team the ACC Coastal will serve up. Currently there's

• a 49.4% chance it'll be Virginia Tech;


• a 43.8% chance it'll be Duke;


• a 3.5% chance of Miami; and


• a 3.3% chance of Georgia Tech.

Yes, Duke are actually underdogs to a 6-5 UNC squad. TFG says that FSU shouldn't have any issues dealing with any of those teams. Of course, there's always the legal action hanging over Jameis Winston, and that will and should proceed by the book and at its own pace. Well, it should; whether or not it will is another matter altogether.



Ohio State is just two wins away from its second undefeated season, but they've got Michigan State waiting for them in the B1G title game. The Spartans will be the second-best team the Buckeyes have faced this year, and this time Ohio State won't have home field advantage.



For all the Buckeye fans who complain about TFG putting them behind Wisconsin -- a team they beat 31-24 -- answer me this:



Which is the best Pac-12 team: Stanford, Oregon, or Utah?

1. If you said Oregon, clearly you're wrong because Stanford beat Oregon.


2. If you said Stanford, clearly you're wrong because Utah beat Stanford.


3. If you said Utah, clearly you're wrong because Oregon beat Utah.

Sometimes the better team loses, and in this case my computer argues that the better team lost in late September. As it stands, though, Ohio State has about a 40% chance of finishing the season undefeated. Combined with Alabama and FSU's remaining schedule, we have the following odds for title game matchups:

• 67% chance of Alabama-FSU;


• 8.6% chance of FSU-Ohio State;


• 3.5% chance of Alabama-Ohio State;


• 1.7% chance that Alabama, FSU, and Ohio State all lose before the end of the season; and


• 19.2% chance of [other].

As to what [other] is, I'm not sure, but Football Study Hall has a pretty good breakdown of the possibilities. Check back in with us next week for updated odds.







Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.