Last updated: Mon Dec 31 20:58:04 2012
| LSU | 24 | Clemson | 25 | Final |
| USC | 7 | Georgia Tech | 21 | Final |
| Tulsa | 31 | Iowa St. | 17 | Final |
| Vanderbilt | 38 | North Carolina St. | 24 | Final |
Read more »
Monday, December 31, 2012
Week 19: Monday In-Game Win Probabilities
Posted on 9:10 AM by Unknown
Last updated: Mon Dec 31 20:58:04 2012
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Saturday, December 29, 2012
Week 18: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities
Posted on 8:49 AM by Unknown
2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part VI
Posted on 7:28 AM by Unknown
Today is Part VI of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
- Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Northwestern Wildcats - Chick-fil-A Bowl
Clemson Tigers vs LSU Tigers - Capital One Bowl
Georgia Bulldogs vs Nebraska Cornhuskers - Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
Michigan State Spartans vs TCU Horned Frogs - Valero Alamo Bowl
Oregon State Beavers vs Texas Longhorns
Full previews after the jump ....
Posted in bowl previews, clemson, georgia, lsu, michigan state, mississippi state, nebraska, northwestern, oregon state, tcu, texas
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Friday, December 28, 2012
Week 18: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities
Posted on 11:03 AM by Unknown
Last updated: Fri Dec 28 22:28:05 2012
| Texas Tech | 34 | Minnesota | 31 | Final |
| Ohio | 45 | LA-Monroe | 14 | Final |
| Virginia Tech | 13 | Rutgers | 10 | Final |
Read more »
Thursday, December 27, 2012
Week 18: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities
Posted on 12:03 PM by Unknown
Last updated: Thu Dec 27 23:14:05 2012
| UCLA | 26 | Baylor | 49 | Final |
| SJSU | 29 | Bowling Green | 20 | Final |
| Duke | 34 | Cincinnati | 48 | Final |
Read more »
2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part V
Posted on 7:28 AM by Unknown
Today is Part V of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
- New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Syracuse Orange vs West Virginia Mountaineers - AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Iowa State Cyclones vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane - Russell Athletic Bowl
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Virginia Tech Hokies - BBVA Compass Bowl
Mississippi Rebels vs Pittsburgh Panthers - Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
Baylor Bears vs UCLA Bruins
Full previews after the jump ....
Posted in baylor, bowl previews, iowa state, mississippi, pittsburgh, rutgers, syracuse, tulsa, ucla, virginia tech, west virginia
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Wednesday, December 26, 2012
2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part IV
Posted on 7:45 AM by Unknown
Today is Part IV of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
- Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Rice Owls vs Air Force Falcons - Hyundai Sun Bowl
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs USC Trojans - GoDaddy.com Bowl
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Kent State Golden Flashes - Discover Orange Bowl
Florida State Seminoles vs Northern Illinois Huskies - Allstate Sugar Bowl
Florida Gators vs Louisville Cardinals
Full previews after the jump ....
Posted in air force, arkansas state, bowl previews, florida, florida state, georgia tech, Kent State, louisville, Northern Ill., rice, usc
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Monday, December 24, 2012
Saturday, December 22, 2012
Week 17: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities
Posted on 9:05 AM by Unknown
Last updated: Sat Dec 22 16:58:04 2012
| Washington | 26 | Boise St. | 28 | Final |
| LA-Lafayette | 43 | East Carolina | 34 | Final |
Read more »
Friday, December 21, 2012
Thursday, December 20, 2012
2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part III
Posted on 7:28 AM by Unknown
Today is Part III of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
- Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Fresno State Bulldogs vs SMU Mustangs - Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs Vanderbilt Commodores - R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
East Carolina Pirates vs Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns - MAACO Las Vegas Bowl
Boise State Broncos vs Washington Huskies - San Diego Country Credit Union Poinettia Bowl
BYU Cougars vs San Diego State Aztecs
Full previews after the jump ....
Posted in boise state, bowl previews, byu, east carolina, fresno state, la-lafayette, north carolina state, sdsu, smu, vanderbilt, washington
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Monday, December 17, 2012
2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part II
Posted on 10:51 AM by Unknown
Today is Part II of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
- Belk Bowl
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Duke Blue Devils - Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
Bowling Green Falcons vs San Jose State Spartans - Heart of Dallas Bowl
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Purdue Boilermakers - AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs Ohio Bobcats - Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl
Ball State Cardinals vs UCF Knights
Full previews after the jump ....
Posted in ball state, bowl previews, bowling green, cincinnati, duke, LA-Monroe, ohio, oklahoma state, purdue, SJSU, ucf
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Saturday, December 15, 2012
Friday, December 14, 2012
2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part I
Posted on 4:00 PM by Unknown
Today is Part I of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
- Little Caesar's Bowl
Central Michigan Chippewas vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers - Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders - Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Arizona State Sun Devils vs Navy Midshipmen - Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Arizona Wildcats vs Nevada Wolf Pack - Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Toledo Rockets vs Utah State Aggies
Full previews after the jump ....
Posted in arizona, arizona state, bowl previews, central michigan, minnesota, navy, nevada, texas tech, toledo, utah state, Western Kentucky
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Saturday, December 8, 2012
Week 15: Saturday Predictions
Posted on 7:58 AM by Unknown
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| Key | |||||||
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| Close game | Certain victory | ||||||
Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.
Monday, December 3, 2012
Week 15: Full Rankings -- RBA
Posted on 10:11 AM by Unknown
Biggest jumps: Texas State (0.115); Louisville (0.107); Pittsburgh (0.105); West Virginia (0.052); Wisconsin (0.049)
Biggest drops: Kansas (-0.071); South Florida (-0.054); Rutgers (-0.053); Georgia Tech (-0.038); Nebraska (-0.033)
Full rankings after the jump.
Read more »
Posted in georgia tech, kansas, louisville, nebraska, pittsburgh, rankings, rutgers, south florida, Texas State, west virginia, wisconsin
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Week 15: Top 25 -- TFG
Posted on 7:58 AM by Unknown
| Rank | +/- | Team | WinPct | SoS | Adjusted | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||||||
| 1 | -- | Alabama | 0.968 | 0.627 | 17 | 38.0 | 1 | 9.7 | 1 | 148.8 | 124 |
| 2 | -- | Notre Dame | 0.888 | 0.606 | 20 | 25.8 | 24 | 11.2 | 2 | 157.8 | 103 |
| 3 | -- | LSU | 0.878 | 0.665 | 7 | 26.9 | 16 | 12.2 | 3 | 162.3 | 83 |
| 4 | -- | Florida | 0.873 | 0.673 | 4 | 26.7 | 18 | 12.3 | 4 | 156.7 | 109 |
| 5 | -- | Oregon | 0.867 | 0.551 | 45 | 31.8 | 3 | 15.0 | 11 | 180.8 | 8 |
| 6 | -- | Texas A&M | 0.854 | 0.666 | 6 | 27.7 | 12 | 13.7 | 6 | 185.4 | 4 |
| 7 | -- | Florida St. | 0.840 | 0.518 | 59 | 29.6 | 7 | 15.2 | 12 | 156.6 | 110 |
| 8 | -- | Stanford | 0.829 | 0.560 | 41 | 26.8 | 17 | 14.3 | 10 | 160.7 | 90 |
| 9 | -- | Oklahoma | 0.828 | 0.638 | 13 | 25.9 | 23 | 13.8 | 7 | 175.6 | 13 |
| 10 | +2 | Wisconsin | 0.828 | 0.567 | 36 | 32.6 | 2 | 17.4 | 30 | 156.3 | 111 |
| 11 | +3 | Georgia | 0.819 | 0.588 | 30 | 29.6 | 6 | 16.2 | 20 | 162.9 | 76 |
| 12 | -2 | Boise St. | 0.811 | 0.394 | 95 | 27.6 | 13 | 15.4 | 14 | 156.1 | 112 |
| 13 | -2 | South Carolina | 0.807 | 0.603 | 23 | 28.0 | 10 | 15.8 | 17 | 156.9 | 107 |
| 14 | -1 | Oklahoma St. | 0.789 | 0.630 | 15 | 26.2 | 21 | 15.5 | 15 | 184.0 | 6 |
| 15 | -- | Kansas St. | 0.788 | 0.606 | 21 | 31.7 | 4 | 18.8 | 41 | 154.8 | 117 |
| 16 | -- | Michigan | 0.777 | 0.567 | 37 | 29.7 | 5 | 18.1 | 36 | 151.9 | 123 |
| 17 | +1 | USC | 0.763 | 0.565 | 38 | 29.0 | 8 | 18.2 | 37 | 162.3 | 82 |
| 18 | +1 | Ohio St. | 0.758 | 0.533 | 52 | 28.5 | 9 | 18.0 | 34 | 162.0 | 86 |
| 19 | -2 | Nebraska | 0.740 | 0.642 | 10 | 26.4 | 20 | 17.3 | 28 | 168.4 | 43 |
| 20 | -- | Michigan St. | 0.735 | 0.605 | 22 | 19.9 | 70 | 13.3 | 5 | 163.0 | 75 |
| 21 | +1 | BYU | 0.730 | 0.443 | 72 | 21.1 | 57 | 14.2 | 9 | 162.9 | 78 |
| 22 | +2 | Cincinnati | 0.722 | 0.503 | 62 | 23.0 | 43 | 15.7 | 16 | 166.8 | 52 |
| 23 | -- | TCU | 0.721 | 0.581 | 32 | 23.0 | 41 | 15.8 | 18 | 163.3 | 70 |
| 24 | -3 | Texas | 0.718 | 0.592 | 27 | 26.4 | 19 | 18.2 | 38 | 159.5 | 95 |
| 25 | -- | Penn State | 0.712 | 0.537 | 51 | 19.9 | 69 | 13.9 | 8 | 169.8 | 35 |
Rankings through games of 2012-12-02
New entries: none.
Dropped out: none.
Well, here we are: the Alabama/Notre Dame matchup we predicted back in week eight. The SEC title game was a bit closer than we projected, but weird plays like a FG blocked and returned for a touchdown -- along with the ensuing 10-point swing -- can do that. While previous years have been the Year of Non-BCS Teams, this was clearly the Year of the SEC. The SEC holds four of the top six spots in the TFG rankings, and two more in the top 15. The numbers point pretty heavily to yet another Alabama championship, so let's look at some of the other teams.
Notre Dame improved 2.1 PPH on offense, but 3.9 PPH on defense. Even small improvements on defense can yield big results in your win-loss record, and 3.9 PPH is big. Even if Notre Dame hadn't improved their offense at all from last year, they'd be ranked fifth in our top 25 right now.
This year's Oregon team is a slight improvement over last year's model; their offensive efficiency went up 1.9 PPH, and their defense only slipped by 0.3 PPH. Another year of progress along those lines, and they'll be the clear #2 team in the country.
Florida State is good, but ... well, still in the ACC.
Stanford experienced a huge drop-off on offense -- a full 7.7 PPH -- but actually picked it up on defense by 2.4 PPH. That was enough to offset the loss of Andrew Luck, and resulted in only a 0.026 drop in expected win percentage.
Wisconsin has been erratic, winning big against "meh" teams, and losing by a field goal to good teams. Seriously, four of their five losses have been by three points (the fifth was by a touchdown to Ohio State). They're another team that had a big drop-off on offense (6.6 PPH) but clawed some of it back on defense (1.0 PPH).
Boise State entered a rebuilding year, and managed to do pretty well for themselves. They had two losses -- one on the road at Michigan State, and a freak loss to SDSU where the Aztecs got 14 of their 21 points off a kickoff return for a TD and an 8-yard drive off a turnover -- and blew through the rest of their schedule. The Broncos will be moving to the Big East next year, and considering the top Big East team in the TFG rankings is (22) Cincinnati, look for Boise to establish themselves as early favorites.
As for the coming bowl season, watch for our annual bowl previews starting in a few weeks.
Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.
Week 15: Top 25 -- RBA
Posted on 7:51 AM by Unknown
| Rank | +/- | Team | WinPct | SoS | Adjusted | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||||||
| 1 | -- | Alabama | 1.000 | 0.549 | 14 | 26.4 | 2 | 5.9 | 1 | 156.3 | 124 |
| 2 | -- | Oregon | 0.992 | 0.530 | 50 | 27.9 | 1 | 11.4 | 20 | 177.1 | 3 |
| 3 | -- | Notre Dame | 0.992 | 0.567 | 1 | 18.7 | 38 | 7.2 | 2 | 164.4 | 98 |
| 4 | -- | Florida | 0.983 | 0.559 | 5 | 18.1 | 43 | 8.9 | 3 | 161.2 | 114 |
| 5 | -- | LSU | 0.975 | 0.548 | 16 | 22.9 | 9 | 9.0 | 4 | 160.4 | 116 |
| 6 | +1 | Texas A&M | 0.967 | 0.555 | 7 | 25.9 | 3 | 11.3 | 19 | 173.7 | 10 |
| 7 | -1 | Georgia | 0.967 | 0.545 | 24 | 23.6 | 6 | 11.1 | 14 | 160.0 | 117 |
| 8 | +1 | South Carolina | 0.950 | 0.545 | 26 | 23.2 | 7 | 9.7 | 6 | 158.0 | 123 |
| 9 | -1 | Kansas St. | 0.941 | 0.532 | 48 | 25.6 | 4 | 14.2 | 41 | 165.6 | 80 |
| 10 | +4 | Stanford | 0.932 | 0.543 | 29 | 20.5 | 23 | 10.0 | 8 | 167.2 | 60 |
| 11 | -- | Oklahoma | 0.932 | 0.547 | 19 | 22.8 | 10 | 11.5 | 24 | 172.0 | 15 |
| 12 | -2 | Oklahoma St. | 0.932 | 0.552 | 11 | 22.8 | 11 | 14.0 | 39 | 174.4 | 7 |
| 13 | +3 | Wisconsin | 0.932 | 0.532 | 47 | 22.2 | 16 | 11.2 | 17 | 161.7 | 112 |
| 14 | -1 | Ohio St. | 0.924 | 0.530 | 49 | 21.5 | 20 | 13.0 | 30 | 159.8 | 118 |
| 15 | -3 | Boise St. | 0.915 | 0.466 | 93 | 19.0 | 31 | 10.1 | 10 | 167.9 | 52 |
| 16 | -1 | Florida St. | 0.878 | 0.547 | 17 | 22.0 | 17 | 9.3 | 5 | 165.6 | 82 |
| 17 | -- | USC | 0.876 | 0.535 | 39 | 22.7 | 12 | 11.5 | 23 | 167.0 | 68 |
| 18 | -- | Clemson | 0.875 | 0.527 | 56 | 23.2 | 8 | 13.9 | 38 | 168.1 | 48 |
| 19 | +2 | Oregon St. | 0.851 | 0.547 | 18 | 17.7 | 49 | 10.7 | 13 | 170.9 | 21 |
| 20 | +2 | Michigan | 0.851 | 0.545 | 23 | 22.5 | 15 | 11.2 | 18 | 166.4 | 73 |
| 21 | +2 | Penn State | 0.845 | 0.539 | 32 | 16.6 | 60 | 9.8 | 7 | 164.5 | 93 |
| 22 | +2 | Utah St. | 0.839 | 0.494 | 70 | 17.5 | 53 | 11.5 | 22 | 169.0 | 33 |
| 23 | -4 | Nebraska | 0.831 | 0.534 | 43 | 18.8 | 35 | 12.1 | 25 | 167.1 | 65 |
| 24 | NA | BYU | 0.822 | 0.482 | 77 | 16.7 | 59 | 10.2 | 11 | 168.9 | 35 |
| 25 | -- | Michigan St. | 0.821 | 0.545 | 22 | 15.4 | 74 | 10.0 | 9 | 166.9 | 69 |
Rankings through games of 2012-12-02
New entries: BYU.
Dropped out: Rutgers.
We arrive at the "end" of the regular season (only Army-Navy remaining) with few surprises. Alabama finishes the regular season in the top spot thanks to the #1 defense and #2 offense. Oregon and Notre Dame finish tied for second thanks to the #1 offense and #2 defense, respectively. Looking forward to the national championship game, RBA will favor the Crimson Tide; the only question is how much.
SEC runner-up Georgia finishes tied with Texas A&M for #6 behind #4 Florida and #5 LSU. Georgia fans should thank their lucky stars that SEC schedule makers continue to push the easy button for the Bulldogs. They cakewalked through Auburn and Ole Miss from the west as the Gators played LSU and Texas A&M and the Gamecocks played LSU and Arkansas without a healthy Marcus Lattimore. You have to wonder if the Bulldogs were really the best team in the SEC East.
Personally, I'm most surprised by Stanford finishing the regular season in the top 10. There's no way I would have expected a team to lose Andrew Luck, beat Oregon, nearly beat Notre Dame on the road, and find their way into the Rose Bowl. Much like Texas A&M beating Alabama, that's why they play the games.
Our mid-major of the year remains Boise State, but kudos to Utah State finishing the season at #22.
Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.
Sunday, December 2, 2012
Week 15: Full Rankings -- TFG
Posted on 8:58 AM by Unknown
Biggest jumps: Arkansas St. (0.065); Pittsburgh (0.038); Texas State (0.034); West Virginia (0.028); Hawaii (0.023)
Biggest drops: Middle Tenn. (-0.060); South Florida (-0.043); Kansas (-0.035); Nebraska (-0.029); South Alabama (-0.019)
Full rankings after the jump.
Read more »
Posted in arkansas state, hawaii, kansas, Middle Tenn., nebraska, pittsburgh, rankings, South Alabama, south florida, Texas State, west virginia
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Saturday, December 1, 2012
Week 14: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities
Posted on 7:25 AM by Unknown
Last updated: Sun Dec 2 00:28:03 2012
| Georgia | 28 | Alabama | 32 | Final |
| Middle Tenn. | 0 | Arkansas St. | 45 | Final |
| Oklahoma St. | 34 | Baylor | 41 | Final |
| Cincinnati | 34 | Connecticut | 17 | Final |
| LA-Lafayette | 35 | FL-Atlantic | 21 | Final |
| Georgia Tech | 15 | Florida St. | 21 | Final |
| South Alabama | 7 | Hawaii | 23 | Final |
| Texas | 24 | Kansas St. | 42 | Final |
| Wisconsin | 70 | Nebraska | 31 | Final |
| Boise St. | 27 | Nevada | 21 | Final |
| Pittsburgh | 27 | South Florida | 3 | Final |
| New Mexico St. | 28 | Texas State | 66 | Final |
| Oklahoma | 24 | TCU | 17 | Final |
| UCF | 27 | Tulsa | 33 | Final |
| Kansas | 10 | West Virginia | 59 | Final |
Read more »
Week 14: Saturday Predictions
Posted on 7:13 AM by Unknown
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| Close game | Certain victory | ||||||
Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.
Week 14: Saturday Matchups
Posted on 7:03 AM by Unknown
Game of the Week
Wisconsin Badgers vs Nebraska Cornhuskers
GUGS Score: 75.3
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nebraska | 0.770 | 0.616 | 18 | 26.1 | 22 | 16.1 | 20 | 168.0 | 47 |
| 12 | Wisconsin | 0.806 | 0.553 | 42 | 30.1 | 5 | 17.1 | 27 | 156.0 | 114 |
Where's the SEC title game? GUGS shades towards close games, and TFG thinks the Dawgs are going to get blown out (no offense, Georgia fans). This, however, should be closer. The last time they played this year it was at Nebraska, and the Cornhuskers eeked out a 3-point victory; that kind of loss seems to be Wisconsin's MO this year, with four losses by exactly a field goal (their other loss was to Ohio State by a touchdown). Wisconsin's lost a lot of offense from last year, but has still been (opponent-and-pace-adjusted) very efficient. Nebraska hasn't been a slouch, either, and with both defenses in the "good" but not "outstanding" category, this looks to be a close, relatively high-scoring affair between two top-20 teams. The Badgers will try and slow things down, while the Huskers will pick up the pace a bit. It'll be a good game with no clear favorite, but since Nebraska doesn't have home field advantage this time, look for the Badgers to eek out a close win in the end. The predicted margin is, fittingly, a field goal. Wisconsin 37, Nebraska 34 (55.5%); 161 plays.
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nebraska | 0.863 | 0.533 | 45 | 18.7 | 35 | 11.5 | 23 | 167.1 | 65 |
| 16 | Wisconsin | 0.882 | 0.531 | 47 | 20.8 | 22 | 11.0 | 16 | 161.6 | 112 |
What? No Alabama-Georgia? If you must know, it's because RBA doesn't think that game is going to be very competitive (31-17, Alabama). On the other hand, Nebraska-Wisconsin should be a pretty good game, even if not matching two teams in the BCS top three. The formerly unstoppable Badger offense has proven itself inconsistent in 2012, notching a 32.6 +/- 23.6 PPH performance. Their defense isn't Alabama or Notre Dame, but a 4.8 +/- 12.4 PPH very respectable. The Huskers sport a similarly effective defense at 3.6 +/- 16.0 PPH. The key in this game is the Nebraska offensive consistency. They haven't always been flashy, but the Cornhuskers 21.9 +/- 6.3 PPH demonstrates a predictability that RBA likes. RBA says that Nebraska wins the Big Ten, 28-24, with 58.8% confidence.
Coin Toss Game of the Week
UCF Knights at Tulsa Golden Hurricane
GUGS Score: 58.5
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | Tulsa | 0.609 | 0.466 | 92 | 16.1 | 66 | 14.1 | 43 | 171.9 | 16 |
| 36 | UCF | 0.713 | 0.461 | 97 | 18.4 | 38 | 14.1 | 40 | 163.5 | 104 |
For what it's worth, history is on my side. Tulsa beat UCF three weeks ago, 23-21. UCF's offense simply isn't consistent. A 30.7 +/- 24.6 PPH performance will only look good because Tulsa isn't very good on defense at 11.2 +/- 5.8 PPH. The only reason why Tulsa will win this game is because UCF's 10.0 +/- 8.3 PPH defense is even worse. It will be ugly, but expect a 27-24 Tulsa victory with 54.4% confidence.
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | Tulsa | 0.598 | 0.421 | 81 | 20.0 | 70 | 17.1 | 28 | 178.3 | 10 |
| 33 | UCF | 0.636 | 0.354 | 114 | 24.9 | 27 | 19.9 | 50 | 156.9 | 108 |
I'm not sure a two-point victory at home is really having history on your side, but whatever. This game is a tale of two teams with opposing strengths and weaknesses: Tulsa has no offense, but a relatively solid D, while UCF has a good offense, but a middling defense. These teams are also on opposite ends of the tempo spectrum; Tulsa will want to go-go-go, while UCF is a more patient team. This will be close, but TFG thinks the Knights will get revenge for their loss a few weeks ago. UCF 35, Tulsa 33 (54.0%); 167 plays.
| System | Expected W - L | Expected % Correct |
|---|---|---|
| RBA | 10.68 - 4.32 | 71.17% |
| TFG | 10.65 - 4.35 | 71.03% |
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