Week 15: Top 25 -- TFG

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	0.968	0.627	17	38.0	1	9.7	1	148.8	124
2	--	Notre Dame	0.888	0.606	20	25.8	24	11.2	2	157.8	103
3	--	LSU	0.878	0.665	7	26.9	16	12.2	3	162.3	83
4	--	Florida	0.873	0.673	4	26.7	18	12.3	4	156.7	109
5	--	Oregon	0.867	0.551	45	31.8	3	15.0	11	180.8	8
6	--	Texas A&M	0.854	0.666	6	27.7	12	13.7	6	185.4	4
7	--	Florida St.	0.840	0.518	59	29.6	7	15.2	12	156.6	110
8	--	Stanford	0.829	0.560	41	26.8	17	14.3	10	160.7	90
9	--	Oklahoma	0.828	0.638	13	25.9	23	13.8	7	175.6	13
10	+2	Wisconsin	0.828	0.567	36	32.6	2	17.4	30	156.3	111
11	+3	Georgia	0.819	0.588	30	29.6	6	16.2	20	162.9	76
12	-2	Boise St.	0.811	0.394	95	27.6	13	15.4	14	156.1	112
13	-2	South Carolina	0.807	0.603	23	28.0	10	15.8	17	156.9	107
14	-1	Oklahoma St.	0.789	0.630	15	26.2	21	15.5	15	184.0	6
15	--	Kansas St.	0.788	0.606	21	31.7	4	18.8	41	154.8	117
16	--	Michigan	0.777	0.567	37	29.7	5	18.1	36	151.9	123
17	+1	USC	0.763	0.565	38	29.0	8	18.2	37	162.3	82
18	+1	Ohio St.	0.758	0.533	52	28.5	9	18.0	34	162.0	86
19	-2	Nebraska	0.740	0.642	10	26.4	20	17.3	28	168.4	43
20	--	Michigan St.	0.735	0.605	22	19.9	70	13.3	5	163.0	75
21	+1	BYU	0.730	0.443	72	21.1	57	14.2	9	162.9	78
22	+2	Cincinnati	0.722	0.503	62	23.0	43	15.7	16	166.8	52
23	--	TCU	0.721	0.581	32	23.0	41	15.8	18	163.3	70
24	-3	Texas	0.718	0.592	27	26.4	19	18.2	38	159.5	95
25	--	Penn State	0.712	0.537	51	19.9	69	13.9	8	169.8	35

Rankings through games of 2012-12-02

New entries: none.



Dropped out: none.



Well, here we are: the Alabama/Notre Dame matchup we predicted back in week eight. The SEC title game was a bit closer than we projected, but weird plays like a FG blocked and returned for a touchdown -- along with the ensuing 10-point swing -- can do that. While previous years have been the Year of Non-BCS Teams, this was clearly the Year of the SEC. The SEC holds four of the top six spots in the TFG rankings, and two more in the top 15. The numbers point pretty heavily to yet another Alabama championship, so let's look at some of the other teams.



Notre Dame improved 2.1 PPH on offense, but 3.9 PPH on defense. Even small improvements on defense can yield big results in your win-loss record, and 3.9 PPH is big. Even if Notre Dame hadn't improved their offense at all from last year, they'd be ranked fifth in our top 25 right now.



This year's Oregon team is a slight improvement over last year's model; their offensive efficiency went up 1.9 PPH, and their defense only slipped by 0.3 PPH. Another year of progress along those lines, and they'll be the clear #2 team in the country.



Florida State is good, but ... well, still in the ACC.



Stanford experienced a huge drop-off on offense -- a full 7.7 PPH -- but actually picked it up on defense by 2.4 PPH. That was enough to offset the loss of Andrew Luck, and resulted in only a 0.026 drop in expected win percentage.



Wisconsin has been erratic, winning big against "meh" teams, and losing by a field goal to good teams. Seriously, four of their five losses have been by three points (the fifth was by a touchdown to Ohio State). They're another team that had a big drop-off on offense (6.6 PPH) but clawed some of it back on defense (1.0 PPH).



Boise State entered a rebuilding year, and managed to do pretty well for themselves. They had two losses -- one on the road at Michigan State, and a freak loss to SDSU where the Aztecs got 14 of their 21 points off a kickoff return for a TD and an 8-yard drive off a turnover -- and blew through the rest of their schedule. The Broncos will be moving to the Big East next year, and considering the top Big East team in the TFG rankings is (22) Cincinnati, look for Boise to establish themselves as early favorites.



As for the coming bowl season, watch for our annual bowl previews starting in a few weeks.







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