Week 5: Saturday Predictions

1 Alabama 37  34 Mississippi 24

1 Alabama 41  30 Mississippi 21

23 Arizona St. 32  20 USC 28

18 Arizona St. 31  28 USC 27

43 Arkansas 27   4 Texas A&M 37

34 Arkansas 27  12 Texas A&M 35

77 Ball St. 34  89 Toledo 29

67 Ball St. 34  75 Toledo 27

53 Boise St. 33 117 Southern Miss. 19

43 Boise St. 45 112 Southern Miss. 13

93 Boston College 18   3 Florida St. 34

83 Boston College 10   3 Florida St. 48

79 Bowling Green 32 111 Akron 22

37 Bowling Green 31 114 Akron 17

109 Buffalo 21  62 Connecticut 28

105 Buffalo 25  89 Connecticut 24

13 Clemson 39 103 Wake Forest 19

20 Clemson 45 107 Wake Forest 13

104 Colorado St. 31 101 UTEP 27

104 Colorado St. 31  98 UTEP 28

75 Duke 44 116 Troy 29

85 Duke 38  82 Troy 27

17 Georgia 33  10 LSU 30

8 Georgia 28   4 LSU 24

115 Hawaii 27  58 Fresno St. 37

102 Hawaii 21  51 Fresno St. 38

120 Idaho 22  92 Temple 31

121 Idaho 21  77 Temple 35

55 Illinois 36 121 Miami-OH 18

96 Illinois 28 120 Miami-OH 14

86 Kentucky 18   7 Florida 27

81 Kentucky 13  10 Florida 34

108 LA-Monroe 31 105 Tulane 28

94 LA-Monroe 38 110 Tulane 21

91 LA Tech 34 107 Army 28

72 LA Tech 35 103 Army 20

70 Minnesota 25  35 Iowa 28

66 Minnesota 27  61 Iowa 28

46 Missouri 35  95 Arkansas St. 22

36 Missouri 38  74 Arkansas St. 21

82 Nevada 35  96 Air Force 27

86 Nevada 38  97 Air Force 21

102 New Mexico 32 113 UNLV 28

108 New Mexico 34 116 UNLV 24

119 New Mexico St. 22  68 SDSU 35

122 New Mexico St. 17  62 SDSU 45

37 North Carolina 29  54 East Carolina 24

47 North Carolina 35  69 East Carolina 17

50 North Carolina St. 38 112 Central Michigan 21

46 North Carolina St. 42 111 Central Michigan 14

19 Notre Dame 25   8 Oklahoma 27

15 Notre Dame 27   5 Oklahoma 24

21 Ohio St. 27   5 Wisconsin 29

13 Ohio St. 31   9 Wisconsin 21

2 Oregon 45  63 California 23

2 Oregon 52  70 California 17

49 Oregon St. 39  94 Colorado 26

39 Oregon St. 45 113 Colorado 17

57 Pittsburgh 33  76 Virginia 26

58 Pittsburgh 35  79 Virginia 21

88 Purdue 32  72 Northern Ill. 33

78 Purdue 27  53 Northern Ill. 31

66 Rice 36 124 FL-Atlantic 14

73 Rice 42 124 FL-Atlantic 10

73 South Florida 18  16 Miami-FL 25

88 South Florida 17  19 Miami-FL 38

38 TCU 29  64 SMU 24

35 TCU 34  64 SMU 17

61 Tennessee 41 114 South Alabama 26

49 Tennessee 45 115 South Alabama 13

106 Texas State 26  69 Wyoming 30

91 Texas State 27  68 Wyoming 31

12 UCF 30  18 South Carolina 26

38 UCF 27   6 South Carolina 31

83 UTSA 30  67 Houston 29

99 UTSA 31  71 Houston 28

56 Vanderbilt 37  99 UAB 24

26 Vanderbilt 42 101 UAB 14

24 Washington 31  26 Arizona 28

33 Washington 31  41 Arizona 24

52 Washington St. 22  14 Stanford 26

84 Washington St. 17  11 Stanford 35

65 West Virginia 28  15 Oklahoma St. 36

48 West Virginia 24   7 Oklahoma St. 35

100 Western Kentucky 29  80 Navy 33

95 Western Kentucky 28  93 Navy 27

110 Western Michigan 27  97 Kent St. 29

90 Western Michigan 28  87 Kent St. 31

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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Week 5: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Sep 29 03:59:05 2013

Mississippi	0	Alabama	25	Final
USC	41	Arizona St.	62	Final
Texas A&M	45	Arkansas	33	Final
Toledo	24	Ball St.	31	Final
Southern Miss.	7	Boise St.	60	Final
Florida St.	48	Boston College	34	Final
Akron	14	Bowling Green	31	Final
Connecticut	12	Buffalo	41	Final
South Carolina	28	UCF	25	Final
Wake Forest	7	Clemson	56	Final
UTEP	42	Colorado St.	59	Final
Troy	31	Duke	38	Final
LSU	41	Georgia	44	Final
Fresno St.	42	Hawaii	37	Final
Temple	24	Idaho	26	Final
Miami-OH	14	Illinois	50	Final
Florida	24	Kentucky	7	Final
Army	35	LA Tech	16	Final
Iowa	23	Minnesota	7	Final
Arkansas St.	19	Missouri	41	Final
East Carolina	55	North Carolina	31	Final
Air Force	42	Nevada	45	Final
SDSU	26	New Mexico St.	16	Final
UNLV	56	New Mexico	42	Final
Central Michigan	14	North Carolina St.	48	Final
Tulane	31	LA-Monroe	14	Final
Oklahoma	35	Notre Dame	21	Final
Wisconsin	24	Ohio St.	31	Final
Colorado	17	Oregon St.	44	Final
California	16	Oregon	55	Final
Virginia	3	Pittsburgh	14	Final
Northern Ill.	55	Purdue	24	Final
FL-Atlantic	14	Rice	18	Final
Miami-FL	49	South Florida	21	Final
Wyoming	21	Texas State	42	Final
South Alabama	24	Tennessee	31	Final
SMU	17	TCU	48	Final
Houston	59	UTSA	28	Final
UAB	24	Vanderbilt	52	Final
Stanford	55	Washington St.	17	Final
Arizona	13	Washington	31	Final
Oklahoma St.	21	West Virginia	30	Final
Navy	7	Western Kentucky	19	Final
Kent St.	32	Western Michigan	14	Final

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Week 5: Friday Predictions

44 BYU 28  71 Middle Tenn. 22

17 BYU 42 100 Middle Tenn. 7

81 SJSU 26  42 Utah St. 30

60 SJSU 24  24 Utah St. 31

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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Week 5: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sat Sep 28 00:54:03 2013

Middle Tenn.	10	BYU	37	Final
Utah St.	40	SJSU	12	Final

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Week 5: Thursday Predictions

28 Georgia Tech 28  39 Virginia Tech 23

40 Georgia Tech 31  52 Virginia Tech 21

74 Tulsa 29  59 Iowa St. 30

65 Tulsa 28  56 Iowa St. 27

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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Week 5: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Thu Sep 26 23:29:04 2013

Virginia Tech	17	Georgia Tech	10	Final
Iowa St.	38	Tulsa	21	Final

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Week 5: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Tulane (0.124); Indiana (0.115); North Carolina St. (0.098); Baylor (0.077); Idaho (0.059)



Biggest drops: SDSU (-0.088); Michigan (-0.082); FIU (-0.074); Notre Dame (-0.073); Cincinnati (-0.063)



Full rankings after the jump.

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Week 5: Top 25 -- RBA

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	0.931	0.551	14	25.0	5	7.8	2	156.2	125
2	+1	Oregon	0.878	0.533	49	29.5	1	9.5	8	177.0	3
3	-1	Florida St.	0.875	0.548	21	26.9	3	7.6	1	165.4	85
4	+2	LSU	0.855	0.550	18	25.6	4	10.8	13	160.5	117
5	--	Oklahoma	0.855	0.548	20	22.5	14	8.4	3	172.0	16
6	-2	South Carolina	0.851	0.545	27	22.9	10	8.9	5	158.1	124
7	+3	Oklahoma St.	0.804	0.553	13	23.4	8	13.7	43	174.5	8
8	+6	Georgia	0.791	0.546	25	24.1	7	13.2	36	160.3	118
9	+3	Wisconsin	0.790	0.533	48	22.3	17	10.5	11	161.5	114
10	+1	Florida	0.786	0.561	4	17.7	46	8.9	6	161.0	115
11	-3	Stanford	0.785	0.542	32	21.2	21	11.2	14	166.9	64
12	+1	Texas A&M	0.785	0.557	8	25.0	6	12.0	24	173.9	10
13	+2	Ohio St.	0.781	0.528	55	22.7	12	12.4	29	160.1	119
14	-7	Michigan	0.751	0.544	28	21.6	20	13.0	33	166.3	72
15	-6	Notre Dame	0.749	0.567	3	17.5	50	9.4	7	164.3	98
16	+1	Kansas St.	0.744	0.535	45	22.6	13	13.9	46	165.6	81
17	+7	BYU	0.736	0.483	77	14.7	78	9.5	9	169.6	28
18	+4	Arizona St.	0.733	0.537	38	22.7	11	14.0	49	174.7	6
19	--	Miami-FL	0.733	0.554	10	23.0	9	11.8	21	162.7	107
20	--	Clemson	0.727	0.531	52	22.3	16	12.5	30	168.3	44
21	-3	Penn State	0.725	0.535	44	18.2	38	9.6	10	164.6	95
22	NA	Baylor	0.716	0.560	6	27.9	2	14.5	50	174.7	7
23	--	Michigan St.	0.716	0.546	23	13.6	88	8.5	4	167.0	63
24	NA	Utah St.	0.700	0.496	69	17.9	44	11.7	19	169.1	31
25	NA	UCLA	0.698	0.546	24	22.1	18	13.0	32	168.9	33

Rankings through games of 2013-09-22

New entries: Baylor, Utah St., UCLA.



Dropped out: Cincinnati, Louisville, Vanderbilt.





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Week 5: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Middle Tenn. (0.258); Memphis (0.228); Iowa (0.203); Washington St. (0.187); Mississippi St. (0.183)



Biggest drops: Arkansas St. (-0.173); West Virginia (-0.147); Troy (-0.141); Western Michigan (-0.138); SJSU (-0.107)



Full rankings after the jump.

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Week 5: Top 25 -- TFG

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	0.959	0.649	19	29.7	4	9.1	2	148.8	123
2	--	Oregon	0.950	0.568	37	31.5	2	10.4	7	175.5	26
3	--	Florida St.	0.943	0.550	44	26.9	6	9.4	3	154.2	117
4	--	Texas A&M	0.899	0.740	5	32.0	1	14.1	33	185.5	7
5	--	Wisconsin	0.896	0.466	75	22.6	20	10.0	6	156.7	113
6	NA	Louisville	0.879	0.307	113	24.4	10	11.6	12	153.9	118
7	--	Florida	0.872	0.629	21	18.1	51	8.8	1	158.1	107
8	-2	Oklahoma	0.869	0.510	57	21.1	30	10.4	8	168.6	50
9	+10	Baylor	0.862	0.388	95	31.0	3	15.6	51	184.6	9
10	-2	LSU	0.856	0.528	54	24.2	11	12.4	20	161.8	90
11	+9	Penn State	0.856	0.488	68	18.9	41	9.7	5	170.9	41
12	-1	UCF	0.842	0.296	116	24.1	12	12.8	24	153.2	121
13	--	Clemson	0.839	0.703	9	24.4	9	13.2	26	176.2	23
14	-5	Stanford	0.839	0.560	39	22.3	22	12.0	14	157.0	110
15	+2	Oklahoma St.	0.835	0.591	31	26.3	7	14.3	38	186.4	6
16	-6	Miami-FL	0.830	0.372	98	22.1	25	12.2	18	161.8	89
17	-5	Georgia	0.827	0.664	15	27.0	5	15.0	46	166.6	57
18	-4	South Carolina	0.806	0.708	7	22.3	21	13.0	25	159.4	102
19	+2	Notre Dame	0.796	0.586	34	20.1	34	12.1	17	164.2	74
20	+4	USC	0.795	0.534	48	18.7	43	11.3	11	156.5	114
21	-3	Ohio St.	0.792	0.464	76	23.4	14	14.1	34	166.6	58
22	+3	UCLA	0.790	0.486	71	22.1	24	13.4	28	178.5	17
23	-8	Arizona St.	0.774	0.777	1	25.2	8	15.9	58	181.2	13
24	NA	Washington	0.771	0.654	18	19.5	38	12.3	19	168.8	47
25	-3	Michigan	0.763	0.446	83	23.4	15	15.1	48	156.8	112

Rankings through games of 2013-09-22

New entries: Louisville, Washington.



Dropped out: Michigan St., Kansas St..



Things we learned this week:

• It's possible to game the TFG rankings by running up the score on a punching bag (hi, Louisville and Baylor).


• Penn State does a better job of "all defense, no offense" than Michigan State.


• This year's Notre Dame 'D' gave up 13 points to this year's MSU offense? Tsk tsk tsk.


• Both the top 25 and the top 10 continue to be more competitive than last year.

With Alabama's win over A&M, and the relative decline of Stanford mean that both Alabama and Oregon should have a relatively clear path to the title game. It's not exactly uncommon wisdom right now, but it is -- as they say -- what it is. For years now Oregon has been struggling to get their strength-and-pace-adjusted defense on the same level as their offense, and so far this year they seem to be on the right track.



If Florida State can keep from Florida State-ing themselves this year, they'll be in good position to win the ACC. Then again, it's the ACC, so who knows?



Further down the rankings there's a mish-mash of teams who either are temporarily overrated (Louisville, Baylor, Penn State, and UCF), already have a loss and are in line waiting for some number of other teams to fail (Texas A&M and Wisconsin), have some serious flaw (Oklahoma, Florida and Clemson), or just don't quite have the ability to make it through a tough season undefeated (LSU, Stanford, and Oklahoma State).



Over the next week or two we'll see teams really starting to get into the meat of their schedule, and the week after that TFG will start printing our conference and undefeated projections. Until then ....







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Week 4: Saturday Predictions

98 Air Force 28  74 Wyoming 31

92 Air Force 27  75 Wyoming 31

113 Akron 31  81 LA-Lafayette 34

119 Akron 24  76 LA-Lafayette 35

1 Alabama 45 109 Colorado St. 17

1 Alabama 48 111 Colorado St. 3

105 Army 30 112 Wake Forest 28

104 Army 24 108 Wake Forest 27

19 Baylor 46 103 LA-Monroe 25

42 Baylor 45  88 LA-Monroe 17

31 BYU 29  36 Utah 28

24 BYU 34  55 Utah 21

117 Central Michigan 27  89 Toledo 33

109 Central Michigan 28  70 Toledo 38

79 Connecticut 23  22 Michigan 30

81 Connecticut 17   7 Michigan 34

83 Duke 28  44 Pittsburgh 31

77 Duke 28  58 Pittsburgh 31

119 Eastern Michigan 25  70 Ball St. 33

117 Eastern Michigan 21  63 Ball St. 34

124 FL-Atlantic 20 104 Middle Tenn. 28

123 FL-Atlantic 17  99 Middle Tenn. 31

7 Florida 31  58 Tennessee 22

11 Florida 35  40 Tennessee 17

12 Georgia 37  82 North Texas 22

14 Georgia 48 100 North Texas 14

35 Georgia Tech 33  48 North Carolina 28

50 Georgia Tech 31  45 North Carolina 27

54 Indiana 32  50 Missouri 30

90 Indiana 27  41 Missouri 35

59 Iowa 31  92 Western Michigan 23

64 Iowa 34  87 Western Michigan 20

106 Kansas 28  84 LA Tech 30

105 Kansas 27  65 LA Tech 31

27 Louisville 37 120 FIU 18

21 Louisville 42 110 FIU 6

8 LSU 33  56 Auburn 22

6 LSU 38  60 Auburn 14

61 Maryland 28  45 West Virginia 32

62 Maryland 28  43 West Virginia 31

123 Massachusetts 17  41 Vanderbilt 34

124 Massachusetts 10  25 Vanderbilt 48

107 Memphis 26  76 Arkansas St. 29

118 Memphis 24  71 Arkansas St. 31

121 Miami-OH 21  53 Cincinnati 35

116 Miami-OH 24  16 Cincinnati 38

78 Minnesota 27  62 SJSU 29

66 Minnesota 28  56 SJSU 27

57 Mississippi St. 33  93 Troy 23

46 Mississippi St. 38  83 Troy 20

90 Nevada 32 110 Hawaii 27

74 Nevada 38 102 Hawaii 24

21 Notre Dame 25  16 Michigan St. 21

9 Notre Dame 27  23 Michigan St. 17

20 Penn State 34  88 Kent St. 21

18 Penn State 41  73 Kent St. 14

64 Rice 31  65 Houston 28

72 Rice 31  80 Houston 27

49 Rutgers 22  30 Arkansas 24

48 Rutgers 27  29 Arkansas 24

77 SDSU 25  39 Oregon St. 29

51 SDSU 27  27 Oregon St. 31

24 USC 27  34 Utah St. 24

38 USC 28  30 Utah St. 24

9 Stanford 31  15 Arizona St. 29

8 Stanford 34  22 Arizona St. 20

51 Syracuse 36 102 Tulane 24

47 Syracuse 35 120 Tulane 10

46 Texas 30  23 Kansas St. 32

35 Texas 28  17 Kansas St. 38

4 Texas A&M 45  60 SMU 26

13 Texas A&M 42  61 SMU 20

37 Texas Tech 37 100 Texas State 23

49 Texas Tech 42  93 Texas State 17

25 UCLA 45 122 New Mexico St. 19

31 UCLA 52 121 New Mexico St. 13

97 UTEP 31  86 UTSA 30

98 UTEP 34  91 UTSA 27

42 Virginia Tech 34  80 Marshall 25

52 Virginia Tech 35  78 Marshall 17

69 Washington St. 34 118 Idaho 20

97 Washington St. 38 122 Idaho 20

5 Wisconsin 35  87 Purdue 19

12 Wisconsin 42  86 Purdue 13

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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