Week 14: Saturday Predictions

15 Arizona St. 36  35 Arizona 30

14 Arizona St. 38  50 Arizona 24

21 Auburn 22   1 Alabama 32

23 Auburn 20   1 Alabama 35

26 Boise St. 39  97 New Mexico 26

32 Boise St. 55 104 New Mexico 17

83 Colorado St. 32 107 Air Force 27

73 Colorado St. 41 102 Air Force 27

98 Connecticut 25  81 Rutgers 28

111 Connecticut 21  74 Rutgers 28

34 Florida 18   2 Florida St. 33

21 Florida 17   2 Florida St. 31

117 Georgia State 26  89 South Alabama 33

121 Georgia State 27  89 South Alabama 34

29 Georgia Tech 30  16 Georgia 34

35 Georgia Tech 32  31 Georgia 31

104 Hawaii 30 101 Army 31

107 Hawaii 34  93 Army 28

82 Illinois 27  65 Northwestern 30

75 Illinois 24  42 Northwestern 35

59 Indiana 36 114 Purdue 26

64 Indiana 41  97 Purdue 24

113 Kansas 20  20 Kansas St. 36

88 Kansas 17  18 Kansas St. 41

95 Kentucky 25  69 Tennessee 29

77 Kentucky 27  61 Tennessee 28

77 LA-Lafayette 33 110 LA-Monroe 28

68 LA-Lafayette 41 113 LA-Monroe 21

61 Memphis 28  92 Temple 23

83 Memphis 28  82 Temple 21

33 Michigan 27   5 Ohio St. 36

27 Michigan 24   8 Ohio St. 31

4 Michigan St. 26  63 Minnesota 19

7 Michigan St. 31  54 Minnesota 13

74 Middle Tenn. 35 116 UTEP 24

105 Middle Tenn. 38 116 UTEP 21

11 Missouri 35  14 Texas A&M 33

11 Missouri 34   9 Texas A&M 28

87 Nevada 23  17 BYU 33

86 Nevada 21  20 BYU 38

120 New Mexico St. 32 119 Idaho 35

117 New Mexico St. 27 120 Idaho 31

48 North Carolina 30  54 Duke 29

51 North Carolina 31  55 Duke 27

73 North Carolina St. 28  91 Maryland 26

79 North Carolina St. 27  76 Maryland 24

60 Rice 29  78 Tulane 26

65 Rice 34 101 Tulane 20

18 South Carolina 28  10 Clemson 31

16 South Carolina 34  15 Clemson 24

27 USC 28  30 UCLA 26

22 USC 31  30 UCLA 24

13 Stanford 27  25 Notre Dame 24

17 Stanford 31  33 Notre Dame 20

76 Syracuse 26  66 Boston College 27

63 Syracuse 31  67 Boston College 21

52 TCU 26   6 Baylor 39

47 TCU 27   5 Baylor 35

86 Tulsa 24  49 North Texas 29

91 Tulsa 24  72 North Texas 28

112 UAB 36 122 Southern Miss. 30

114 UAB 35 122 Southern Miss. 24

93 UNLV 26  67 SDSU 31

96 UNLV 28  71 SDSU 31

56 Utah 34 106 Colorado 25

57 Utah 38 100 Colorado 24

28 Utah St. 34 102 Wyoming 22

36 Utah St. 45  98 Wyoming 14

71 UTSA 30 109 LA Tech 24

87 UTSA 31  94 LA Tech 21

42 Vanderbilt 27  94 Wake Forest 20

38 Vanderbilt 35  85 Wake Forest 13

103 Virginia 20  38 Virginia Tech 29

95 Virginia 20  49 Virginia Tech 28

75 West Virginia 31  79 Iowa St. 29

58 West Virginia 28  53 Iowa St. 27

80 Western Kentucky 28  85 Arkansas St. 26

90 Western Kentucky 28  81 Arkansas St. 27

3 Wisconsin 31  55 Penn State 20

3 Wisconsin 38  48 Penn State 14

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

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Week 14: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Dec 1 03:34:06 2013

Southern Miss.	62	UAB	27	Final
Arizona	21	Arizona St.	58	Final
Alabama	28	Auburn	34	Final
New Mexico	17	Boise St.	45	Final
Air Force	13	Colorado St.	58	Final
Rutgers	17	Connecticut	28	Final
Florida St.	37	Florida	7	Final
South Alabama	38	Georgia State	17	Final
Georgia	41	Georgia Tech	34	Final
Army	42	Hawaii	49	Final
Northwestern	37	Illinois	34	Final
Purdue	36	Indiana	56	Final
Kansas St.	31	Kansas	10	Final
Tennessee	27	Kentucky	14	Final
Temple	41	Memphis	21	Final
Minnesota	3	Michigan St.	14	Final
Ohio St.	42	Michigan	41	Final
UTEP	17	Middle Tenn.	48	Final
Texas A&M	21	Missouri	28	Final
Duke	27	North Carolina	25	Final
SDSU	19	UNLV	45	Final
BYU	28	Nevada	23	Final
Idaho	16	New Mexico St.	24	Final
Maryland	41	North Carolina St.	21	Final
Tulane	13	Rice	17	Final
Clemson	17	South Carolina	31	Final
UCLA	35	USC	14	Final
LA-Monroe	31	LA-Lafayette	28	Final
Notre Dame	20	Stanford	27	Final
Boston College	31	Syracuse	34	Final
Baylor	41	TCU	38	Final
LA Tech	10	UTSA	30	Final
North Texas	42	Tulsa	10	Final
Wyoming	7	Utah St.	35	Final
Colorado	17	Utah	24	Final
Wake Forest	21	Vanderbilt	23	Final
Virginia Tech	16	Virginia	6	Final
Iowa St.	52	West Virginia	44	Final
Arkansas St.	31	Western Kentucky	34	Final
Penn State	31	Wisconsin	24	Final

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Week 14: Friday Predictions

115 Akron 23  50 Toledo 34

110 Akron 24  66 Toledo 35

64 Ball St. 36 124 Miami-OH 22

62 Ball St. 42 124 Miami-OH 13

46 Buffalo 23  24 Bowling Green 25

84 Buffalo 21  46 Bowling Green 38

105 Central Michigan 34 121 Eastern Michigan 26

112 Central Michigan 41 118 Eastern Michigan 21

72 FL-Atlantic 32 125 FIU 18

108 FL-Atlantic 41 125 FIU 13

32 Houston 34  70 SMU 28

43 Houston 35  70 SMU 24

8 LSU 34  90 Arkansas 20

6 LSU 42  44 Arkansas 17

58 Marshall 32  44 East Carolina 35

78 Marshall 27  52 East Carolina 34

39 Nebraska 25  31 Iowa 27

37 Nebraska 27  25 Iowa 24

96 Ohio 30 123 Massachusetts 22

119 Ohio 35 123 Massachusetts 14

12 Oregon 35  53 Oregon St. 27

4 Oregon 42  39 Oregon St. 21

57 Pittsburgh 28  51 Miami-FL 29

59 Pittsburgh 31  56 Miami-FL 27

84 SJSU 29  37 Fresno St. 36

80 SJSU 27  45 Fresno St. 38

100 Troy 32 111 Texas State 31

103 Troy 34  92 Texas State 27

19 UCF 31  99 South Florida 19

26 UCF 41 109 South Florida 13

23 Washington 33  68 Washington St. 26

24 Washington 41  60 Washington St. 21

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

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Week 14: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sat Nov 30 00:24:05 2013

Toledo	29	Akron	31	Final
Miami-OH	14	Ball St.	55	Final
Bowling Green	24	Buffalo	7	Final
South Florida	20	UCF	23	Final
Eastern Michigan	10	Central Michigan	42	Final
FIU	6	FL-Atlantic	21	Final
SMU	0	Houston	34	Final
Arkansas	27	LSU	31	Final
East Carolina	28	Marshall	59	Final
Iowa	38	Nebraska	17	Final
Massachusetts	23	Ohio	51	Final
Oregon St.	35	Oregon	36	Final
Miami-FL	41	Pittsburgh	31	Final
Fresno St.	52	SJSU	62	Final
Texas State	28	Troy	42	Final
Washington St.	17	Washington	27	Final

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Week 14: Thursday Predictions

47 Mississippi St. 26  36 Mississippi 27

34 Mississippi St. 27  28 Mississippi 28

40 Texas 34  45 Texas Tech 32

29 Texas 35  41 Texas Tech 27

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

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Week 14 TFG Projections: SEC,Pac-12,Mountain West,Sun Belt

Projected conference champions

• Mountain West: Utah St.


• Pac-12: Stanford


• SEC: Alabama


• Sun Belt: LA-Lafayette

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

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Week 14 RBA Projections: SEC,Pac-12,Mountain West,Sun Belt

Projected conference champions

• Mountain West: Utah St.


• Pac-12: Arizona St.


• SEC: Alabama


• Sun Belt: LA-Lafayette

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

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Week 14 TFG Projections: Big Ten,Big XII,Mid-American,Independents

Projected conference champions

• Big Ten: Michigan St.


• Big XII: Baylor


• Independents: Notre Dame


• Mid-American: Bowling Green

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

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Week 14 RBA Projections: Big Ten,Big XII,Mid-American,Independents

Projected conference champions

• Big Ten: Michigan St.


• Big XII: Baylor


• Independents: Notre Dame


• Mid-American: Northern Ill.

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

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Week 14: Tuesday Predictions

43 Northern Ill. 41 118 Western Michigan 24

40 Northern Ill. 45 115 Western Michigan 14

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

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Week 14 TFG Projections: ACC,American Athletic,Conference-USA

Projected conference champions

• ACC: Florida St.


• American Athletic: UCF


• Conference-USA: East Carolina

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

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Week 14 RBA Projections: ACC,American Athletic,Conference-USA

Projected conference champions

• ACC: Florida St.


• American Athletic: UCF


• Conference-USA: East Carolina

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

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Week 14: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG

Odds as of games through 2013-11-24



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Week 14: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- RBA

Odds as of games through 2013-11-24



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Week 14: Tuesday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Tue Nov 26 22:54:04 2013

Western Michigan

14

Northern Ill.

33

Final

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Week 14: Top 25 -- TFG

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama  ( 10 - 0 )	0.979	0.556	49	27.5	5	6.5	1	146.8	125
2	--	Florida St.  ( 10 - 0 )	0.965	0.433	76	31.4	1	9.0	3	160.5	98
3	--	Wisconsin  ( 8 - 2 )	0.918	0.553	50	23.3	14	9.4	4	157.4	108
4	+3	Michigan St.  ( 9 - 1 )	0.894	0.483	70	18.1	51	8.1	2	160.2	99
5	--	Ohio St.  ( 10 - 0 )	0.892	0.490	67	28.1	4	12.7	17	166.1	71
6	-2	Baylor  ( 8 - 1 )	0.888	0.587	39	30.8	2	14.2	30	186.7	2
7	+6	Oklahoma St.  ( 9 - 1 )	0.872	0.595	34	24.8	11	12.1	13	184.2	5
8	+3	LSU  ( 7 - 3 )	0.871	0.709	2	25.4	8	12.4	15	160.1	100
9	-1	Louisville  ( 9 - 1 )	0.853	0.364	95	21.0	24	10.8	5	152.7	123
10	--	Clemson  ( 8 - 1 )	0.847	0.590	37	23.3	13	12.3	14	182.2	11
11	+3	Missouri  ( 9 - 1 )	0.843	0.603	33	21.5	18	11.4	10	174.1	32
12	-6	Oregon  ( 8 - 2 )	0.840	0.538	60	25.0	10	13.4	20	176.0	24
13	-1	Stanford  ( 9 - 2 )	0.837	0.582	41	20.9	26	11.3	9	156.1	115
14	-5	Texas A&M  ( 7 - 3 )	0.830	0.636	16	28.7	3	15.8	51	180.6	14
15	--	Arizona St.  ( 8 - 2 )	0.820	0.629	19	26.2	7	14.8	43	173.9	34
16	+5	Georgia  ( 6 - 4 )	0.794	0.687	8	26.7	6	16.1	53	168.5	58
17	-1	BYU  ( 6 - 4 )	0.788	0.632	18	18.3	48	11.1	7	186.6	3
18	--	South Carolina  ( 8 - 2 )	0.786	0.618	23	21.4	20	13.1	18	160.8	95
19	--	UCF  ( 9 - 1 )	0.785	0.422	81	23.7	12	14.6	38	158.6	106
20	-3	Kansas St.  ( 6 - 4 )	0.784	0.609	26	25.1	9	15.4	45	156.9	111
21	-1	Auburn  ( 9 - 1 )	0.784	0.626	21	21.9	17	13.5	22	167.6	63
22	--	Oklahoma  ( 9 - 2 )	0.783	0.589	38	22.6	15	14.0	26	162.0	91
23	NA	Washington  ( 6 - 4 )	0.756	0.591	36	21.5	19	14.1	28	173.8	35
24	NA	Bowling Green  ( 7 - 3 )	0.746	0.234	124	18.0	53	12.0	12	154.8	117
25	NA	Notre Dame  ( 8 - 3 )	0.730	0.604	32	19.3	38	13.3	19	163.5	83

Rankings through games of 2013-11-24

Data from CFBStats

New entries: Washington, Bowling Green, Notre Dame.



Dropped out: USC, Boise St., Houston.



We're coming down the home stretch and Alabama and Florida State seem to be a sea of tranquility surrounded by chaos. Baylor loss? Check. SEC East madness? Check. Boise losing a close game because of kicking issues? Check. The rare Oregon-loss-Stanford-loss-Oregon-loss triple lutz? Check. Year-in and year-out the Pac-12 -- Oregon and Stanford in particular -- seems destined to play out the worst-case scenario of a Mexican standoff. Ohio State is waiting in the wings hoping that eventually the chaos will overtake either the Crimson Tide or the Seminoles, ignoring the fact that they've got a large, green speedbump in front of them.



However even the sea of tranquility doesn't look that calm for the top two. TFG has the Crimson Tide as 93% likely to beat Auburn, but Vegas pins the odds a bit closer to 77%. A quick back-of-the-envelope has the Crimson Tide as about 90% favorites over the eventual SEC East winner, meaning Alabama is somewhere between 69% and 84% likely to win out. FSU are heavy favorites against the Gators, and are waiting for whichever team the ACC Coastal will serve up. Currently there's

• a 49.4% chance it'll be Virginia Tech;


• a 43.8% chance it'll be Duke;


• a 3.5% chance of Miami; and


• a 3.3% chance of Georgia Tech.

Yes, Duke are actually underdogs to a 6-5 UNC squad. TFG says that FSU shouldn't have any issues dealing with any of those teams. Of course, there's always the legal action hanging over Jameis Winston, and that will and should proceed by the book and at its own pace. Well, it should; whether or not it will is another matter altogether.



Ohio State is just two wins away from its second undefeated season, but they've got Michigan State waiting for them in the B1G title game. The Spartans will be the second-best team the Buckeyes have faced this year, and this time Ohio State won't have home field advantage.



For all the Buckeye fans who complain about TFG putting them behind Wisconsin -- a team they beat 31-24 -- answer me this:



Which is the best Pac-12 team: Stanford, Oregon, or Utah?

1. If you said Oregon, clearly you're wrong because Stanford beat Oregon.


2. If you said Stanford, clearly you're wrong because Utah beat Stanford.


3. If you said Utah, clearly you're wrong because Oregon beat Utah.

Sometimes the better team loses, and in this case my computer argues that the better team lost in late September. As it stands, though, Ohio State has about a 40% chance of finishing the season undefeated. Combined with Alabama and FSU's remaining schedule, we have the following odds for title game matchups:

• 67% chance of Alabama-FSU;


• 8.6% chance of FSU-Ohio State;


• 3.5% chance of Alabama-Ohio State;


• 1.7% chance that Alabama, FSU, and Ohio State all lose before the end of the season; and


• 19.2% chance of [other].

As to what [other] is, I'm not sure, but Football Study Hall has a pretty good breakdown of the possibilities. Check back in with us next week for updated odds.







Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

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